Science, like a painting, necessarily has a perspective. To the extent that we can remove our biases and learn from multiple perspectives, we will understand our world better.
~ Bang, Lee, and Medin (2014)
~ Bang, Lee, and Medin (2014)
Research Interests
I am broadly interested in applying the technologies of remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to improve the coexistance between people, ecosystems, and wildfire. How might these tools be used to enhance our knowledge of the wildfire, society, and the built environment? How can we conserve habitat and forest resilience in the face of inevitable wildfire? How can we use these data to inform policy and guide our decisions about potential futures?
GIS and remote sensing are becoming critical tools for learning more about the environment in basic and applied science, as well as documenting change through time. Additionally, a growing body of free data is available, opening up abundant potential research opportunities. Although the human footprint on the land, combined with climate change, is leading us to uncertain times, remote sensing and GIS enable broad-scale monitoring and assessment. The data they provide are becoming increasingly important for guiding decisions and policy regarding the management of environmental processes and coupled human-environment systems.
I believe that a cross-disciplinary approach that considers work and methods of other fields, especially social science, to be critical in creating valuable research that results in real change in the world. This necessitates collaboration between scientists and with managers and professionals on the ground, as well as passing this knowledge on to the next generation of thinkers. My work with students has taught me that some of the best ideas come from minds that are not yet shackled with doubt and criticism. I strive to keep a young and open mind, but benefit greatly from regular and close interaction with undergraduate students.
GIS and remote sensing are becoming critical tools for learning more about the environment in basic and applied science, as well as documenting change through time. Additionally, a growing body of free data is available, opening up abundant potential research opportunities. Although the human footprint on the land, combined with climate change, is leading us to uncertain times, remote sensing and GIS enable broad-scale monitoring and assessment. The data they provide are becoming increasingly important for guiding decisions and policy regarding the management of environmental processes and coupled human-environment systems.
I believe that a cross-disciplinary approach that considers work and methods of other fields, especially social science, to be critical in creating valuable research that results in real change in the world. This necessitates collaboration between scientists and with managers and professionals on the ground, as well as passing this knowledge on to the next generation of thinkers. My work with students has taught me that some of the best ideas come from minds that are not yet shackled with doubt and criticism. I strive to keep a young and open mind, but benefit greatly from regular and close interaction with undergraduate students.
Research Projects
Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) for forest and fuels estimation
Despite widespread research that derives copious valuable metrics from aerial LiDAR, few are available to managers due to a significant knowledge and software barrier for LiDAR processing. Even when LiDAR is utilized to derive more complex metrics by scientists and LiDAR experts, metrics are often predictions of plot-based data across the landscape. While this use is admirable, LiDAR can offer so much more. Because it holds information about forest structure in 3 dimensions, new metrics can be derived that capture the full complexity of forest structure.
My dissertation explores ways in which managers can use the plot network and data layers already available to them to derive large tree density, a metric that is critical for habitat modeling for many species, including the California spotted owl. I also explore the utility of LiDAR for estimating ladder fuels that carry fire from the ground into the canopy. Because there was no reliable method for quantifying these fuels, I also developed a plot-based methodology to collect these data. My dissertation work aims to increase LiDAR accessibility to managers and to develop new ways to use LiDAR to solve old problems. While there is much more work to be done, I am excited to share my work with LiDAR experts and forest managers, and hope that my findings improve the way we use LiDAR, the way we manage forests, and the way that we model and manage for wildland fire.
My dissertation explores ways in which managers can use the plot network and data layers already available to them to derive large tree density, a metric that is critical for habitat modeling for many species, including the California spotted owl. I also explore the utility of LiDAR for estimating ladder fuels that carry fire from the ground into the canopy. Because there was no reliable method for quantifying these fuels, I also developed a plot-based methodology to collect these data. My dissertation work aims to increase LiDAR accessibility to managers and to develop new ways to use LiDAR to solve old problems. While there is much more work to be done, I am excited to share my work with LiDAR experts and forest managers, and hope that my findings improve the way we use LiDAR, the way we manage forests, and the way that we model and manage for wildland fire.
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Page header: A transect of forest from aerial LiDAR Right: A flythrough video I made of a LiDAR point cloud in the Klamath mountains of Northern California |
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Where wildfires destroy buildings in the US relative to the wildland-urban interface and national fire outreach programs
Over the past 30 years, the cost of wildfire suppression and homes lost to wildfire in the US have increased dramatically, driven in part by the expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where buildings and wildland vegetation meet. In response, the wildfire management community has devoted substantial effort to better understand where buildings and vegetation co-occur, and to establish outreach programs to reduce wildfire damage to homes. However, the extent to which the location of buildings affected by wildfire overlaps the WUI, and where and when outreach programs were established relative to wildfire, is unclear. We found that most threatened and destroyed buildings in the conterminous U.S. were within the WUI (59% and 69%, respectively), but this varied considerably among states. Fires with the greatest building loss were close to outreach programs (such as Firewise), but for 76% of destroyed buildings, the nearest outreach program was established after wildfires had occurred. In these locations, as well as places new to the WUI or in areas where the fire regime is predicted to change, pre-emptive outreach could improve the likelihood of building survival and reduce the human and financial costs of structure loss.
See Research Brief summary for the California Fire Science Consortium
Over the past 30 years, the cost of wildfire suppression and homes lost to wildfire in the US have increased dramatically, driven in part by the expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where buildings and wildland vegetation meet. In response, the wildfire management community has devoted substantial effort to better understand where buildings and vegetation co-occur, and to establish outreach programs to reduce wildfire damage to homes. However, the extent to which the location of buildings affected by wildfire overlaps the WUI, and where and when outreach programs were established relative to wildfire, is unclear. We found that most threatened and destroyed buildings in the conterminous U.S. were within the WUI (59% and 69%, respectively), but this varied considerably among states. Fires with the greatest building loss were close to outreach programs (such as Firewise), but for 76% of destroyed buildings, the nearest outreach program was established after wildfires had occurred. In these locations, as well as places new to the WUI or in areas where the fire regime is predicted to change, pre-emptive outreach could improve the likelihood of building survival and reduce the human and financial costs of structure loss.
See Research Brief summary for the California Fire Science Consortium
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How exceptional was the 2017 Tubbs fire?
The Tubbs fire started northeast of Santa Rosa, CA on October 8, 2017 at 9:45pm, and quickly escalated into an extreme event. Fanned by 60 mph winds, the fire burned 1,000 buildings overnight, and thousands more before it was extinguished. Housing in the area had increased 7-fold since last burning in 1964, and, if past trends continue, will double by 2050 in this fire-prone area. Most threatened homes (71%) in the Tubbs Fire were in the wildland urban interface (WUI), but nearly all remaining homes were in urban areas, uncharacteristic of most wildfires. WUI housing is increasing in CA and across the nation, with 1/3 of CA homes within the WUI in 2010. While the Tubbs fire was unusually destructive and resulted in record loss of life, much of CA is headed in a similar direction, and destruction in fires like the Tubbs may become the norm if policies remain unchanged. |
Note: The above calculations are not yet finalized
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Rebuilding and new construction trends after California wildfires
Destructive wildfires are increasingly prevalent in many parts of the US, yet relatively little is known about long-term housing growth after fires, from both new construction and rebuilding after loss to fire. We investigated the rate of rebuilding and new construction after destructive California wildfires (1970-2010; n=23) and asked how these change over time after fire, if these trends were consistent, and what influenced these rates. We found high rebuilding rates (72%) within 20 years after fires, but with high variability (ranging from 13% to 100%). The majority of rebuilding that did occur (67%) was completed within 5 years of the fire, and the vast majority (94%) within 10 years. Most fire perimeters contained more buildings five years after the fire than immediately before, and twice as many (96% growth) 20 years after fire. New construction (versus rebuilding) was the primary driver of 20-year building construction, accounting for 3/4 of the construction since fire. In summary, we found that growth after destructive fires is high, both immediately after fire and 20 years into the future. These findings can be used to inform the longevity of post-fire assistance programs and support changes in policy regarding regulations on building in these areas.
Destructive wildfires are increasingly prevalent in many parts of the US, yet relatively little is known about long-term housing growth after fires, from both new construction and rebuilding after loss to fire. We investigated the rate of rebuilding and new construction after destructive California wildfires (1970-2010; n=23) and asked how these change over time after fire, if these trends were consistent, and what influenced these rates. We found high rebuilding rates (72%) within 20 years after fires, but with high variability (ranging from 13% to 100%). The majority of rebuilding that did occur (67%) was completed within 5 years of the fire, and the vast majority (94%) within 10 years. Most fire perimeters contained more buildings five years after the fire than immediately before, and twice as many (96% growth) 20 years after fire. New construction (versus rebuilding) was the primary driver of 20-year building construction, accounting for 3/4 of the construction since fire. In summary, we found that growth after destructive fires is high, both immediately after fire and 20 years into the future. These findings can be used to inform the longevity of post-fire assistance programs and support changes in policy regarding regulations on building in these areas.
Publications
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Gallagher, C., Keane, J., Shaklee, P., Kramer, H., Gerrard, R. In press. Spotted owl foraging patterns following fuels treatments in the northern Sierra Nevada, California. Journal of Wildlife Management and Wildlife Monographs.
Kramer, H., Mockrin, M., Alexandre, P., Stewart, S., Radeloff, V. 2018. Where wildfires destroy buildings in the US relative to the wildland-urban interface and national fire outreach programs. International Journal of Wildland Fire 27(5):329-341. [pdf]
Radeloff, V., Helmers, D., Kramer, H., Mockrin, M., Alexandre, P., Bar Massada, A., Butsic, V., Hawbaker, T., Martinuzzi, S., Syphard, A., Stewart, S. 2018. Rapid growth of the U.S. Wildland Urban Interface exacerbates wildfire problems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 115(13):3314-3319. [pdf]
Rissman, A.R., Burke, K.D., Kramer, H.A.C., Radeloff, V.C., Schilke, P.R., Selles, O.A., Toczydlowski, R.H., Wardropper, C.B., Barrow, L.A., Chandler, J.L. and Geleynse, K. 2018. Forest management for novelty, persistence, and restoration influenced by policy and society. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 16(8):454-462.
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Kramer, H.A., Collins, B.M., Gallagher, C.V., Keane, J.J., Stephens, S.L., Kelly, M. 2016. Accessible light detection and ranging: estimating large tree density for habitat identification. Ecosphere 7(12). [pdf]
Kramer, H.A., Collins, B.M., Lake, F.K., Jakubowski, M.K., Stephens, S.L. and Kelly, M. 2016. Estimating ladder fuels: a new approach combining field photography with LiDAR. Remote Sensing 8(9):766. [pdf]
Kramer, H.A., Collins, B.M., Kelly, M., Stephens, S.L. 2014. Quantifying ladder fuels: A new approach using LiDAR. Forests 5(6):1432-1453. [pdf]
Collins, B.M., Kramer, H.A., Menning, K., Dillingham, C., Saah, D., Stine, P.A., Stephens, S.L. 2013. Modeling hazardous fire potential within a completed fuel treatment network in the northern Sierra Nevada. Forest Ecology and Management 310:156-166. [pdf]
Kramer, H.A., D.M. Montgomery, V.M. Eckhart, and M.A. Geber. 2011. Environmental and dispersal controls of an annual plant’s distribution: how similar are patterns and apparent processes at two spatial scales? Plant Ecology, 212(11):1887-1899. [pdf]